 
Checkers
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The Battle for the Latino Vote
By
John Zogby
The 2006 elections are barely over and the
race for the 2008 presidency has begun in earnest. With the Iowa
caucuses and the New Hampshire primary are only fourteen months
away, candidates are establishing their exploratory committees and
trying out their various dance steps on the Sunday talk shows.
2008 may be the most significant election
of our generation for many reasons. Will the parties finally realign
strictly by ideology as they did in 2004? Will the candidates hug
the center and try to win by offering big tent solutions, instead of
merely appealing to their own core constituencies? Will Democrats
continue to make inroads among conservative-leaning groups like
white men and married voters as they did in 2006? Will Christian
evangelicals take a break from politics following an extended period
of disappointment and disillusionment?
And what about the Hispanic vote? Will
Democrats regain their traditional footing among the nation’s
largest minority (as they did in 2006) or will Republicans rebound
from their 2006 beating among Hispanics (only 30%, according to exit
polls) and get back to the significant inroads they had made among
this group which includes so many social conservatives?
This is no small question. Just to put
things in context, consider these figures: Hispanics were 5% of 95
million voters in 1996, 6% of 105 million voters in 2000, and 8.5%
of 122 million voters in 2004. With a highly competitive election in
2008 and a heavy voter registration drive, we could be looking at an
electorate that includes a Hispanic component amounting to 10% of
130 million voters in 2008.
Republicans took a drubbing among Hispanics
this year. From George Bush’s 40% share in 2004, the Republicans
managed only to garner only 30% this year. Just think what that
means in the context of huge growth in the numbers Hispanic voters.
For 2008 that could mean a decline of 1.3 million Hispanic
Republican votes in elections that have been won and lost by mere
hundreds and thousands of votes. The impact could be particularly
significant in such key competitive states like Arizona, New Mexico,
Florida, and Colorado, all of which include large Hispanic
populations.
One key factor in Hispanic disillusionment
for Republicans has been the party’s right wing pushing for a tough
position on illegal immigration. In the Zogby International
post-election poll of 903 Hispanic adults, only 29% polled said they
feel that the Republicans are better equipped to handle immigration.
Twice as many favored the Democrats. More ominously for the GOP,
only 30% said the Republicans represent the values they hold
dearest.
There are some hopeful signs for
Republicans, however. Almost one in four of our sample (23%)
included those who identified as “born-again” or “evangelical”
Christians—a growing phenomenon among Hispanic Americans. These
represented only 19% of the Hispanic vote in 2004. When we closely
examine this burgeoning group, we find that they are most favorably
disposed toward the Republican Party in many ways. Two in three of
this group give the party better marks than the Democrats in
handling immigration and 56% say that the Republicans “understand
them best”. This group is conservative across the board, and if they
continue to grow, they will provide the party with the ready base it
will need to stay competitive in national elections.
But the Republicans have a problem with
Hispanics. Just as in the 1990s the party was viewed as the mean
party that hated all immigrants, today the Republicans struggle to
find a middle ground among the anti-immigration conservatives and
the growing Hispanic voter base. There is no doubt that immigration
hurt the party overall this year. If the party is smart, it will
compromise on immigration and work with the Democrats on an
immigration reform that grants amnesty to guest workers, offers a
path to citizenship, and at least tries to reduce the flow of new
illegal immigrants entering the country.
And the fence will have to go. Back in the
1990s, I did a series of polls and focus groups among Hispanics to
determine their potential for supporting Democratic and Republican
candidates. I found a considerable amount of agreement with the
Republican Party on social issues like abortion, gay marriage, and
guns—but also a strong reluctance to vote for a party that promoted
the anti-immigration Proposition 187 in California. But then the ice
was broken, and (primarily local reasons), Hispanics supported
Republicans like Michael Bloomberg in 2001, George Pataki in 2002,
and Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003. This set the table for President
Bush’s five-point gain among Hispanics in 2004.
Will the Republicans undo this? Will
Democrats find a way to solidify the support they gained in 2006?
These are not just good questions. They may be the most important
questions in American politics as we head toward 2008.
John Zogby is President and CEO of Zogby International, a
public opinion research and marketing firm based in Utica, New York.
Among other things, Zogby International is known as one of the most
reliable and accurate political pollsters in America, using both
traditional live telephone polling and an innovative interactive
online polling methodology, under development at Zogby International
since 1998. In the recent 2006 midterm elections, Zogby Interactive
online polling correctly identified the winners of 18 of 19 U.S.
Senate races. In the 19th race (Missouri), Zogby Interactive polling
eight days before the election showed a one–point advantage for
Republican James Talent, while Democrat Claire McCaskill edged him
out by 2 points, well within the Zogby poll’s margin of error. |
