|
|
New Jersey Senate
|
3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
|
Menendez* (D)
|
40% | 41% | 45% | 43% |
|
Kean Jr. (R)
|
40% | 40% | 39% | 41% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 715 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.7 percentage points.
| Michigan Senate | 3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
| Stabenow* (D) | 52% | 49% | 48% | 49% |
| Bouchard (R) | 38% | 41% | 42% | 45% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1011 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points
Complicating matters for Republicans, though, is sudden vulnerability on the part of Virginia Sen. George Allen. The Old Dominion Republican, who led Democrat Jim Webb by a comfortable margin a month ago now trails by one point, following remarks he made that some considered racially insensitive.
In the hot internecine battle in Connecticut, meanwhile, incumbent Sen. Joe Lieberman, who narrowly lost his state’s Democratic primary to liberal political neophyte Ned Lamont in early August, leads Lamont by a ten-point margin heading into the general election, with Republican Alan Schlesinger proving to be a non-factor in the race.
| Connecticut Senate | 8-21-06 |
| Lieberman* (I) | 49% |
| Lamont (D) | 39% |
| Schlesinger (R) | 2% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 533 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 4.2 percentage points.
In Missouri, our polling of the Senate race continues to show first-term Republican incumbent Jim Talent leading Democratic State Auditor Claire McCaskill by a five-point margin. In previous public comments, national Democratic leaders had mentioned the seat as necessary to their hopes of capturing the upper house of Congress.
| Missouri Senate | 3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
| Talent* (R) | 48% | 49% | 49% | 50% |
| McCaskill (D) | 45% | 44% | 45% | 45% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 831 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.4 percentage points.
For Republicans, meanwhile, a failure on the part of Santorum and DeWine to yet gain serious traction against well-known and well-funded Democratic opponents means those two seats remain in serious jeopardy. Santorum trails Democrat Bob Casey Jr. by a nine-point margin, while DeWine trails Democrat Sherrod Brown by eight points.
| Ohio Senate | 3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
| Brown (D) | 46% | 47% | 45% | 47% |
| DeWine* (R) | 37% | 34% | 37% | 39% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1045 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.0 percentage points.
| Pennsylvania Senate | 3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
| Casey Jr. (D) | 47% | 48% | 49% | 51% |
| Santorum* (R) | 39% | 41% | 40% | 42% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 671 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Also troubling for Republicans is the large number of close contests, including a surprisingly strong showing by Nevada Democrat Jack Carter, son of the former president, who now only trails Republican incumbent John Ensign by three points. And in Tennessee, Republican nominee Bob Corker holds onto a tenuous four-point lead over Democrat Harold Ford Jr. in the race to replace retiring Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.
Gubernatorial Races Show Signs of Democratic Breakthroughs
While control of the Senate remains up in the air, not so with the nation’s governor’s mansions. If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up the chief executives’ posts in several states, while retaining virtually every state where a Democrat is currently in charge.
On the Democratic side, Democrat Ed Rendell is the most vulnerable incumbent in this round of polling, leading NFL Hall-of-Famer Lynn Swann by just four points, making the race for the Keystone State’s governor’s mansion closer than the state’s much-watched Senate contest.
| Pennsylvania Governor | 3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
| Rendell* (D) | 47% | 48% | 48% | 48% |
| Swann (R) | 42% | 43% | 41% | 44% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 671 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.8 percentage points.
Among incumbent Republican governors, meanwhile, none are more vulnerable than Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty, who now trails his most likely Democratic rival, Attorney General Mike Hatch, in a hypothetical match-up in the North Star State.
| Minnesota Governor | 3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
| Hatch (D) | 43% | 40% | 43% | 43% |
| Pawlenty* (R) | 44% | 45% | 43% | 41% |
| Hutchinson (I) | 6% | 6% | 4% | 6% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 624 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.9 percentage points.
One Republican, however, has moved into safer territory since the last round of polling. California’s Arnold Schwarzenegger, the former actor of “Terminator” and “Conan” fame, now holds a five-point lead over Democrat Phil Angelides, the state treasurer. Schwarzenegger was earlier thought vulnerable, but current trends in Golden State polling favor his reelection.
| California Governor | 3-27-06 | 6-19-06 | 7-19-06 | 8-21-06 |
| Schwarzenegger* (R) | 41% | 45% | 42% | 45% |
| Angelides (D) | 46% | 45% | 44% | 40% |
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1057 likely voters statewide, conducted August 15 through 21, 2006. MOE +/- 3.0 percentage points.
The survey results are based on Zogby Interactive polling in 26 states, an ongoing project that began in September, 2005. Margins of error range from +/- 3.0 percentage points to +/- 4.4 percentage points, differing by state based on size of the sample responding to the survey. Each state’s margin of error is noted at the bottom of the charts for that state.
For a detailed methodological statement on this poll, please
go to:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1128