Zogby Santorum, DeWine ReboundLatest poll finds endangered GOP incumbents surging; Democrats still lead in key gubernatorial contestsA tied Senate race in New Jersey and last-minute Republican surges in Pennsylvania and Ohio may confound Democratic hopes of retaking the upper chamber of Congress, new Zogby Interactive polling suggests. The online polls of Senate and gubernatorial races in 26 states find Democrats, who began this election cycle hoping to capture the Republican-held House and Senate, losing ground in New Jersey. There, incumbent appointee Bob Menendez suddenly finds himself running dead-even with Republican Tom Kean Jr. Menendez had been leading since a June poll.
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 761 likely voters statewide, conducted August 29 through Sept. 5, 2006. MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. In two of the other hottest Senate contests this fall, vulnerable GOP incumbents have suddenly closed the gap on their challengers. Republicans Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine of Ohio, both of whom were down by wide margins essentially all year, have suddenly narrowed the edge of their Democratic challengers to four points. The survey shows that in Pennsylvania, the presence of third-party candidates suggests an even closer race, with left-wing candidates siphoning votes from moderate Democrat Bob Casey Jr.
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 893 likely voters statewide, conducted August 29 through Sept. 5, 2006. MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points.
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 807 likely voters statewide, conducted August 29 through Sept. 5, 2006. MOE +/- 3.5 percentage points. Lieberman–Lamont Race Grows Tighter The Connecticut Senate showdown between independent Democratic Senator Joe Lieberman and liberal Democratic nominee Ned Lamont has narrowed considerably since late August, when the incumbent held a ten-point lead. Lieberman now bests Lamont by just four points in the battle to represent the Nutmeg State in the Senate.
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 531 likely voters statewide, conducted August 29 through Sept. 5, 2006. MOE +/- 4.3 percentage points. Gubernatorial Races Continue to Show Republicans Struggling Despite better numbers for the GOP in senate battles, the party’s hold on several governor’s mansions seems to be slipping. In addition to virtually assured gubernatorial losses in states like New York and Massachusetts, the GOP continues to face tough sledding in Pennsylvania and Ohio. A previous round of polling suggested that Pennsylvania Democrat Ed Rendell was vulnerable, but this latest survey suggests his grasp on power is firming up. With Rendell over 50% and Republican football legend Lynn Swann down by 10 points, this game looks more difficult for the Republican challenger to win.
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 893 likely voters statewide, conducted August 29 through Sept. 5, 2006. MOE +/- 3.3 percentage points. Another GOP hopeful is in similarly tough position in the Buckeye State, but Ken Blackwell gained a little traction in his battle to keep the governor’s mansion in Republican hands after the scandal-plagued Bob Taft departs the scene. But he still trails Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland.
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 807 likely voters statewide, conducted August 29 through Sept. 5, 2006. MOE +/- 3.5 percentage points. GOP hopes are no brighter in Minnesota, where incumbent Tim Pawlenty is in the fight of his life to keep his job, trailing Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch by one point. However, Republican prospects are bright down south, where Republican Attorney General Charlie Crist looks set to succeed Florida Governor Jeb Bush, despite the failing campaign of Republican Senate hopeful Katherine Harris.
Source: Zogby Interactive survey of 1005 likely voters statewide, conducted August 29 through Sept. 5, 2006. MOE +/- 3.1 percentage points. The survey results are based on Zogby Interactive polling in 26 states, an ongoing project that began in September, 2005. Margins of error range from +/- 2.9 percentage points to +/- 4.3 percentage points, differing by state based on size of the sample responding to the survey. Each state’s margin of error is noted at the bottom of the charts for that state. For a detailed methodological statement on this poll, please go to: |
